The current epidemic and associated economic crisis has brought out the both the hack economist and soothsayer in me - So, friends and family, here are my first few predictions for the future…

Things change, and yet they stay the same. When I read about the lives of ancient romans I am always struck by how their concerns and every day lives both mirror ours in so many fundamental ways - Yet in the occasional difference like attitudes to death there have been profound changes. As Christianity altered some philosophical bases of the ancient world, whilst having no effect on the majority of structures and every day activities and attitudes ( being human nature mostly …) , Covid-19 will likewise have a minor effect on human nature and everyday life, love and power. Yet change is coming…

First the economy. NZ is incredibly well placed compared to any other country to deal with this shock. We produce plenty of food, have reasonable infrastructure, and there is still the ghost of the no.8 wire attitude present, despite the general softening of our population into moral and physical corruption seen throughout the rest of the late stage western empire we live in.

We will be isolated for what could be an extended period - Not in terms of goods, where due to our relationships with China and Australia ( Winston not withstanding … ) there is no reason why trade in food or any other industrial products we cannot make here should not continue.

What will need to change is the movement of people. This will have a profound effect on short term and long term careers and employment. Forget that degree in intersectional environmental studies - You will need to pick up the spade that’s just been dropped by an underpaid worker from the third world who has been until now enabling the “ wants” we have all gotten used to.

Go back to 3rd form economics. Suddenly wants and needs are going to come sharply into relief, which will cause a profound shock, particularly in the 17-30 age group. 

Now I am not saying everyone in that cohort is either lazy or a snowflake, but they have grown up in a world with the luxury to pursue what they have been interested in underwritten by record low unemployment, a booming economy under the last two governments, and imported labour to do all the shit jobs. That’s right - Back to Rome - We may not technically have slaves, but like Rome we have enabled our citizens to enjoy an unprecedented standard of living by importing cheap labour.

The only real difference is we use money not swords.

This world is gone for the short to medium term. So be ready when the code 4 is lifted to take up that road construction or horticultural job. Don’t give up tertiary study if you are in the top 10 percent academically, but if not, seriously consider both your own and the country’s future, and make sure to pursue useful work or study that is going to fill the gap left by overseas labour.

The reality is that even if NZ pulls out of this in 6 months, which I consider both realistic and optimistic, the pandemic will still be endemic in most other large overseas states - Perhaps for years. India, the USA, and Europe have corrupted political systems or poor resolve so far in dealing with this - Don’t expect them to open up again soon. China, after an embarrassing denial there was a problem in the beginning , has shown that autocracy can have it’s benefits - They are doing well but freedom of movement both internally and externally will be off the table for a long time.

The biggest upside to this crisis could be permanent environmental change. The air in Auckland today was so wonderful, the light simply sparkled with no cars on the road or factories running !

But- we will have to discard many of the unrealistic and failed policy ideas of the green movement to date. Electric cars and veganism were never going to save the planet and won’t now. 

My belief is that we simply have to learn from our grandparents and do more with less - The lockdown will be a stark lesson in wants vs needs again - This dilemma is at the heart of environmental problems. So hopefully that conference you were going to attend in London or NY / Holiday on an island or visit to overseas family more than once every 5-10 years ( my grandmother went back to the UK once between 1945 and her death )  that new car or outfit, the latest tech etc etc - HOPEFULLY - every middle class citizen of the planet will permanently curtail these activities, rather than trying to vainly offset them with virtue signalling activities or “ Circular / sustainable “ business snake oil . We simply have to consume less both collectively and as individuals - there is no workaround.

This has the potential to save the planet in it’s present form for the future. I am optimistic humanity will survive in some shape regardless , but as a conservative at heart I do rather like the planet as it is !

Here ends the first rave - Everyone keep safe and well. And feel free to argue with me if you can be bothered !!